Tuesday, January 03, 2006

THE BUZZ, 2005 THE WHISPERS, 2006 - SF Chronicle

This article from Jan 1 San Francisco Chronicle nicely sums up the 2005 real estate market, but doesn't really venture to predict what 2006 will look like.

Over the last quarter of 2005, there was an obvious shift in Buyer attitude. Fewer houses received multiple offers, and it was clear that with the slow increase in interest rates and the mad race for housing over the past few years, buyers stopped jumping to own just anything, but were truly searching for value. Sellers, on the other hand, were slow to accept and acquiesce to the cooling of the market, which led to some properties remaining on the market for a record number of days.

In 2006 we can continue to see Buyers holding back as inventory remains stagnant. Once the current inventory of properties begins to wane and the Spring housing market begins renewed, activity will most likely become more robust.

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Gary Anderson said...

Spring activity will wain in many bubble areas. The word is out: houses are grossly overpriced and must come down in price. The bay area has some strength due to having the best jobs. But remember, in Japan, in one of the most dense cities in the developed world, with great jobs, housing was cut in half in value over a period of 14 years. This could very well happen in the bay area as well. I urge potential buyers to beware, to not use adjustable mortgages of any kind, and to wait until after the 1 trillion dollars of adjustable mortages reset in 2007 before even thinking about being the last man in on this pyramid scheme devised by the federal reserve.

Amy Blakeley said...

You are right that in some parts of the Bay Area housing prices will come down. But the reality is that there is too high a home-ownership demand in San Francisco proper for a dramatic drop in prices. Appreciation may slow, and some sellers may not get what they expected to get for their properties a year ago, but overall there will be very little change. What will happen is that buyers won't overpay for a crappy remodel anymore. They are looking for quality and long-term appreciation potential, and will pay to get it. This has been particularly visible in the last 3 months in San Francisco's housing market.